Latest ASPC results
The recent publication of the statistics for the fourth quarter of 2021 (produced by the ASPC in conjunction with the University of Aberdeen Business School, Centre for Real Estate Research) provides an interesting insight into market activity during the last quarter. The main points of note are as follows:
- The quarterly house price change in Aberdeen City and Suburbs is -1.5%
- The annual house price change in Aberdeen City and Suburbs is +1.7%
- The annualized house price change over 5 years in Aberdeen City and Suburbs is -1.5%
Commenting on the latest findings, Chairman of the Board of Directors of ASPC John MacRae stated:
“While the results demonstrate a fall back, to some extent, from the position in the preceding (third) quarter, a significant part of that will be down, I suggest, to one main factor. The fourth quarter is a relatively quiet quarter, when the activity decreased as the year end approaches.
Since then, other factors have arisen which may affect our local housing market, this year. The economic outlook is unclear – energy prices, inflation and a possible conflict in Eastern Europe – are likely to have some effect on confidence. On the other hand, oil prices have risen sharply.
Currently – 31st January, our experience is that our market is starting the year with good levels of activity. Insertions for January are 412, sales 336 (2021 - 357 and 341). These are up on last year and slightly better than we would expect. Last year we were still experiencing the “bounce back factor” to some extent, so the current year levels are grounds for optimism. Further encouragement can be gained from the facts that deals are being done at or near asking price, and in some cases closing dates are being fixed.
While there are some indicators in the general outlook to cause concern for housing markets, our local market has started the year in good heart and insertions and sales are at an encouraging level."
With the last two years being somewhat “unique,” across our offices at Mackinnons we have seen positive signs of activity as we have entered 2022 and move steadily towards Spring. With more activity currently in the city and suburbs than more country/rural areas, new, desirable properties to the market are generally being met with positive interest from launch. As we move toward a traditionally more “popular” time of year for buying and selling, we would hope to see the start of busy few months, nothwithstanding the wider market forces alluded to above.